BracketBot: March 15, 2019

Seed List:

1: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Michigan State, Kentucky, Michigan, Tennessee
3: Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, LSU
4: Purdue, Florida State, Kansas State, Marquette
5: Wisconsin, Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada
6: Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Villanova, Cincinnati
7: Maryland, Iowa State, VCU, UCF
8: Wofford, Washington, Louisville, Iowa
9: Utah State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Syracuse
10: Minnesota, Seton Hall, Temple, TCU
11: Ohio State, St Mary’s, Baylor, Florida
12: Texas, Murray State, New Mexico State, Clemson, Ole Miss, NC State
13: UC Irvine, Vermont, Liberty, Yale
14: Old Dominion, Hofstra, N Kentucky, Georgia Southern
15: Colgate, Montana, Abilene Christian, Bradley
16: Gardner-Webb, North Dakota State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern, Iona, Norfolk State

Some much-needed formula changes in today’s update, and I’m much more satisfied with this as the output. I removed the “strength of wins” component, which was a good idea but not something I think I implemented in the right way, and turned up the strength of schedule component to a higher value to compensate for that.

The end result is a lot better in my view – yesterday BracketBot had Texas as a 9 seed, and even though they lost to Kansas (so a drop would’ve been coming), I much prefer that they fell this far since that’s more in line with what I personally expect to happen on Sunday. This algorithm still likes Nebraska a lot more than I think the committee will, but not enough to put them in the field.

Speaking of which, Florida and Clemson are back in this field. Clemson’s ACC run is over, having lost Wednesday, but they certainly still have a good shot at making it. Florida will play LSU today in the SEC quarterfinals as an 8 vs. 1 matchup – a win in that game would, I think, definitively put the Gators in. The teams falling out are both Big East bubble teams, and I think that might be the nail in the coffin for them both. St. John’s might have been okay losing to Marquette in their quarterfinal if it was close, but they lost by 32. Creighton was favored in their matchup with Xavier despite being the lower seed, but the Musketeers pulled it out despite blowing a 12-point lead.

Last Four Byes: TCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Florida
Last Four In: Texas, Clemson, Ole Miss, NC State
First Four Out: Nebraska, Oregon, Davidson, Belmont
Next Four Out: Creighton, Dayton, Alabama, St John’s

Bids by conference:
ACC 9, Big XII/Big Ten 8, SEC 7, AAC 4, Big East 3, Pac-12/MWC/WCC 2

Full bracket:

2 thoughts on “BracketBot: March 15, 2019

    1. Well damn, that’s embarrassing. Normally I have it update that stuff automatically but for some reason I had Hofstra entered manually for a previous update. Luckily, Northeastern slots into the exact same spot.

      Like

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