BracketBot: March 9, 2019

Seed List:

1: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan
2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan State, Kentucky
3: Texas Tech, Houston, LSU, Purdue
4: Kansas, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Kansas State
5: Marquette, Buffalo, Wisconsin, Nevada
6: Maryland, Villanova, Cincinnati, Auburn
7: Mississippi State, Iowa State, UCF, Louisville
8: VCU, Washington, Oklahoma, Wofford
9: Iowa, Syracuse, Texas, Baylor
10: Utah State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Arizona State
11: St John’s, TCU, Ole Miss, Clemson
12: Florida, Belmont, Temple, New Mexico State, Seton Hall, Creighton
13: Lipscomb, UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Hofstra
14: Vermont, Drake, Yale, South Dakota State
15: Georgia Southern, N Kentucky, Radford, Montana
16: Colgate, Abilene Christian, Texas Southern, Rider, St Francis PA, Norfolk State

On the day that the first automatic bid is awarded, BracketBot has flip-flopped on which team it thinks will actually win it. Belmont has edged ahead of Murray State after winning its OVC semifinal game in a more dominating fashion, beating Austin Peay rather easily while Murray State needed late heroics from Ja Morant to beat Jacksonville State. In BracketBot’s efficiency ranking (which it uses to predict future game outcomes), Belmont is now 74th with Murray State 75th. So, don’t take this as some huge endorsement that Murray State now has no chance – Belmont’s probability of winning tonight’s game is now estimated to be 50.03%. Crazy, and I think that means this game is definitely worth your attention. We’re also in agreement with the general consensus that Murray State has no shot at an at-large bid (even though they would probably also be a 12 seed), while Belmont has hope of a bid even with a loss today (though I’m not optimistic – remember that if Belmont needs help from the committee, we’ve already reached the scenario where they lose today’s game). If you’re a fan of a team on the bubble, like I personally am, you probably want Belmont just to be safe.

Last Four Byes: St John’s, TCU, Ole Miss, Clemson
Last Four In: Florida, Temple, Seton Hall, Creighton
First Four Out: NC State, St Mary’s, Indiana, Murray State
Next Four Out: Alabama, Davidson, Nebraska, Toledo

Bids by conference:
ACC/Big XII/Big Ten 8, SEC 7, Big East 5, AAC 4, Pac-12/MWC 2

Full bracket: same story as yesterday, Louisville has played all four of these 2 seeds so they can’t be a 7. They become an 8 seed again, and VCU is elevated to the 7 line this time.

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